Friday, October 07, 2005

The Weighing Of Distributed Ignorance Equals Intelligence

The average guess of a group of people who are asked to estimate the weight of a calf will fall very close to it's real value.This of course is the result of an approximate number of incorrect guesses above and below the true value.The result when averaging is that the corresponding numbers above and below the correct value cancel each other.This is based on an unskewed estimates .Just as the crowd gave a correct estimate based on various factors which lead to high and low guesses likewise the person or persons who guessed correctly must have weighed all the factors which contributed to the distribution of guesses.In effect the few people who did get the correct answer except for luck must have taken into account the reasoning for the high and low guesses and averaged them in their mind.What happened in their mind is what happened on the outside to the crowd since they got the same answer.Once this result is had then that new value can be used again along with others to make a new decision.So the weighing of ideas will progress building up more and more complex ones.Invariably the same people will be more correct than most members of the crowd and we see this in our ordinary life.They are more able to weigh the circumstances and come to the correct conclusion .The weighing of truth will be a result of logic and empirical evidence and self correcting.Any ideology which destroys empirical evidence and critical thinking will produce people with a skewed and invariably incorrect outlook.